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Putin Will Use a Tactical Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine
Deterrence is no longer an option
I previously said Vladimir Putin would be foolish to use a tactical nuclear weapon for a number of reasons. But as I also said, a desperate political leader is prone to reckless actions.
Media reports have recently focused on Putin’s baseless allegations that Ukraine plans to use a dirty bomb (i.e., a conventional weapon with radioactive properties). But we shouldn’t be concerned about the dirty bomb itself. What we should fear is what Putin would do next.
Putin will use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. I’m not the only one with this prediction.
The certainty of this statement is based on a number of key indicators.
- Putin and Russia’s history of using false flag operations or pretexts to justify physical force;
- Putin’s overt attempts to formalize the Ukraine dirty bomb false flag;
- The unsubstantiated nature of the dirty bomb false flag claims, which reveal Putin’s desperation and recklessness;
- Tactical nuclear weapons serving as a fundamental part of Putin’s war plan; and
- Putin’s strong belief in the power of psychological warfare and the equally strong belief in a weak Western world order, which he’s determined to upend if not destroy.
Putin knows the West does not want World War III. Which is why it makes the threat of him using tactical nuclear weapons all the more likely. It’s unlikely to elicit a strategic nuclear response from the West.
Let’s address each of the factors listed above in tandem and assess why they indicate he will ultimately decide to use tactical nuclear weapons.
Putin and Russia’s history of false flag operations
Vladimir Putin rose to power and cemented it following a series of suspicious apartment bombings. This led to his war with Chechnya.
False flags operations have a long history in Russia even prior to Putin. For example, in the 1960s, the KGB used false flag operations to justify an invasion of Czechoslovakia, which was undergoing democratic reforms (thereby threatening Communism).
